The Astros’ $11.5 million question in bullpen. Can Rafael Montero regain form?
A referendum on two dismal seasons for Rafael Montero arrived last July. Halfway through an ill-fated contract that had made Montero one of baseball’s highest-paid relievers, the Houston Astros designated the veteran right-hander for assignment, acknowledging his struggles and presenting Montero with a choice.
After clearing waivers, Montero had the service time to reject a minor-league assignment and become a free agent. Two months remained in the season. Another team might have offered Montero, just two years prior an integral piece of an historic Houston bullpen, a major-league job. The Astros remained on the hook for the rest of his three-year, $34.5 million contract regardless.
“The main thing was my family,” Montero said through an interpreter Wednesday in the Astros’ spring training clubhouse. “I didn’t necessarily want to uproot everybody. Me moving to another team was going to cause a lot of logistics issues with the family, so the number one thing that I thought of was my family and their comfort.”
Astros officials at the time expressed optimism that Montero would stay in the organization. Montero said he discussed the options with his wife, Yasmina, with whom he has two daughters aged 4 and 3, and his agent. He chose to accept the assignment to Triple-A — a demotion — and spent the rest of the season pitching in Sugar Land.
“I took it as an opportunity to go down and work on my craft,” Montero said.
No longer on the Astros’ 40-man roster, Montero is in their camp this spring as likely baseball’s highest-priced non-roster invitee. Only nine relievers on MLB rosters have a higher salary this season than the $11.5 million Montero will make, per Spotrac, in the final year of a deal orchestrated by ownership two winters ago. An opportunity exists for him to try to salvage what remains of it.
Houston must build out its bullpen this spring, with several open spots and a bevy of candidates in camp. None has more major-league experience than Montero, 34, who failed the past two seasons to replicate the success of his 2022 campaign yet could pitch himself back into consideration for a role with a good spring.
“I think he understands where he’s at and he knows that we believe in him and we know that he can be a guy that can really help us win games,” manager Joe Espada said last week. “So he understands what’s at stake here and he’s going to come in and he’s going to get after it.”
After posting a 2.37 ERA in 2022, Montero totaled a 4.94 ERA in 109 outings over the past two seasons. His minus-0.8 WAR in that span, per FanGraphs, was the third-lowest among qualified relievers. His swing-and-miss and in-zone rates dipped last season and his strikeout rate plummeted. He walked 19 batters and struck out 23 in 38 ⅓ major-league innings. Opponents slugged .461 against him.
“He was getting in bad counts usually because he wasn’t in-zone, wasn’t getting swings early or behind in count,” Astros pitching coach Josh Miller said. “He’s got good enough stuff. We’ve got to attack with his pitches.”
Just 22% of plate appearances against Montero last year ended with him ahead in the count. Espada said the Astros felt he became predictable with fastballs when behind. Montero used his changeup and slider a combined 31.5% of the time in 2022, allowing a .148 average against those pitches. Opponents hit .385 against the slider in 2023, perhaps leading to Montero use it just 7.5% of the time last season.
Part of the Astros’ instruction to Montero in his Triple-A and winter ball outings was to throw the slider more. They also asked him to tweak his changeup to lower the velocity and create more separation from his fastball. Montero’s changeup has helped him compile career reverse splits. Left-handers hit .297 against his changeup last season, however, while posting a .991 OPS against him overall.
Pitch execution was the main issue, Miller said, a reality reflected in results. Only one reliever with at least 30 innings in the majors owned a higher FIP — a metric that minimizes the role of fielders — than Montero, illustrating the strides he will need to show this spring to be a factor.
Miller described Montero’s time in Sugar Land as “mostly about trying to build some confidence in him.” Facing Triple-A hitters, Montero did not allow a run in his first 11 outings. He totaled a 2.20 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 16 ⅓ innings, perhaps indicating some progress.
“Even when we asked him to go back to Triple-A, we talked to him about how much of a family this is for him,” general manager Dana Brown said. “‘This is your home. Let’s go back and let’s figure out a few things.’ Sometimes relievers go down and they come back … and we’re hoping that he comes back.”
Beyond closer Josh Hader and set-up man Bryan Abreu, the structure of the Astros’ bullpen is unclear. The trade of Ryan Pressly and exit of Hector Neris in free agency removed experience from it and leave the club to figure out a bridge to the back end. Tayler Scott projects as part of it. Bryan King, Kaleb Ort and Shawn Dubin are returning candidates. Ort is dealing with an oblique injury that will “take a little bit of time,” Espada said Wednesday.
The Astros have several non-roster relievers in camp with major-league experience, including Miguel Castro and Steven Okert. None is more familiar to them than Montero, a pitcher their front office was prepared to cut ties with last July when his performance became untenable.
“Obviously, I’ve got some years in the big leagues, I’ve kind of proven the player that I can be,” Montero said. “So I’m just hoping that I get the opportunity this spring to contribute to the team.”
